笔者的研究目标在于为中国现在与未来的政策决定者提供可以选择的市场制度模式选择。市场经济制度有多种模式，例如美国自由主义经济制度、欧洲社会市场制度、欧洲法团主义制度、甚至十九世纪资本主义寡头垄断市场经济制度或九十年代俄罗斯无政府主义黑社会制度……，而在所有这些可以选择的市场制度中，假如我们抛弃政治角度的“民主”与“专制”构建政府模式不谈，仅就市场制度本身分析，那么对于中国的历史、文化、社会结构而言，其最优模式选择是什么？其可能路径选择是什么？
笔者对于中国未来市场经济制度模式选择的研究将比较以上各种不同市场经济模式，鉴于本研究计划主要在美国资料较为齐全的情况下展开，因此仅以美国市场经济制度作为比较研究的对象，也就是作为笔者总体研究计划（包括以欧洲、美国、苏联等为对象）内的一个分计划。
笔者试图通过以下三个方面定性的“度”对经济制度进行完整地考察：
a 政治的，即考察政府通过支出、管理或者占有生产资料的方式参与经济的程度，包括有关社会保护的各社会群体的转移支付模式与制度保障，以及政府对宏观经济与行业的管制方式与税收政策。
b 经济的，即考察公开与竞争的市场对经济的影响程度，如果市场是健康的，而非受政治、社会、宗教、种族等因素严重影响或者严重扭曲的，那么它本身是否仍会被垄断和操纵。
c 社会的，即考察社会团结与社会凝聚程度，这个很容易被忽视的“维度”往往是影响健康市场经济制度建立的最重要因素，它不仅指人们对于管理其经济行为基本规则的认同度、不同群体之间的相互信任程度、社会通过协商机制来解决经济不平等的程度，而且还反映普通公民对于社会的忠诚度，以及社会公民对于公平、自由、民主、财富等基本价值观的判断标准。
在确立了三个维度的研究视角后，笔者的重点研究内容将集中在：
a 美国市场经济的经验与教训，重点研究美国三十年代大萧条发生的历史背景、经济原因、社会原因，进而与中国目前经济、社会的现状相比较。
b 美国联邦政府与地方政府的关系。与中国中央和地方关系、权利分配机制等相比较，重点研究美国联邦政府与州政府的权力分配机制与发展历史，关注美国地区经济、社会发展平衡，兼与中国问题相比较。
c 美国政府公共管理的制度变迁，关注美国政府规制与放松规制的内因与相关制度，其与社会公平与公民社会权利之间的关系，从而窥视我国国有资产改革、市场准入放开以及相应公民社会福利改革等问题。
通过上述与中国现状的对比研究，笔者希望首先能够做出判断：对于今天正处在选择阶段的中国市场经济制度建设与经济发展现状而言，中国经济结构与社会分配现状是否与美国三十年代一样，有可能构成未来2-3年后严重经济危机的出现？如何化解这个危险？其次明确，政府在各层面的权力分配及公共管理手段对促进公平发展及保持竞争有何积极的价值。
2. Research Proposal:
Naping Yu, Mar. 2005
? Theme
Which Model of Market Economic System to Choose For Future China (Comparing With U.S.A)
? Background
Through 25 years’ reform and opening, the market economic system has been built up in China to some extent, but the state-controlled assets, administrative monopoly and market access barriers are still maintained within this system. Most researchers specified in Chinese problems and emphasized that the future of market economic system in China must depend on the private assets and the law to guarantee the steady development according to their liberal view. But the problem is too complicated to solve with such a simple conclusion. The hardest nut is to choose a fair means to transit state-owned assets into private-owned assets in the reform process and meanwhile to guarantee the new private capital exercises under the law.
In fact, being neither planned nor marketing, but “regionalized” and “privileged” characterize the market economic system in China. This kind of characteristic is caused by the asymmetry in our economic opening. Coastal developed regions not only develop faster than inland regions in economy, but also get greater power of political speech. The regional political power, which aims at self-benefits maximization, only serves a few people to be upstarts by centralizing local judicial and executive power. The economy depending on investments goes up faster, and the gaps between coastal regions and inland regions, between the minority and the majority becomes wider. Such kind of development not only lacks of justice but also bears a magnitude production capacity, which requires the great world resources. The economic recession will come out when the production capacity cannot be digested by export because of trade frictions and domestic weak purchasing power caused by low incomes.
Comparing with the experience of Germany、Japan and America in 1920s or 30s, China’s economy now faces the risks of over-investment、domestic consumption shortage and unbalanced development among different regions. In order to avoid these potential risks, we need modify our economic system model, which is deeply associated with administrative power, change the structure of social power and allocation efficiently, and find a model appropriate for our historical cultural and social structure. If not, the accumulation of social problems may cause drastic social conflicts. No matter whether the conflicts come out in “left” or “right” way, it will bring a terrible historical retrogression and an uncertain impact on the steady world. From the prospective research on institutions, the theoretic hypotheses of the “theory of China prosperity ” and ”theory of China collapse” completely depend on our choice of market economic system model in future.
? Current Study
Researches on the choice of market system model in China are mostly concentrated on the economic field, keeps their attention to reform and the creation of property institutions. Some scholars begin to pay close attention to the judicial guarantee of property institutions. It’s a regret that most of scholars in economics claim that the state-owned property should be privatized in a larger scale and the government should give up their control of economy in deregulation. From the mainstream value in economics, they emphasize that the harm to the social justice, which comes from seeking efficiency, can be ignored. This market system aiming at protecting a few efficient creators has harmed the social rights of the low-income citizens in a large degree, and make China appear serious social splits——the rich society and the poor society, developed areas and backward areas. Although the short-term prosperity can cover up the social separation, but the long-term hazard has not been deeply recognized by the economic field, and the scholars in law field are inclined to discuss judicial questions without combining law with politics and economy. The scholars in politics field only want to reform public management without changing the allocation of political power. All of them cannot grasp the problem comprehensively.
A lack of combined research method with politics, economics and sociology, our research on market system is pale. The institutions come out of our research may make us the slaves of capital and efficiency, and destroy the human dignity and the value of liberty.
? Object and Content
The object of this research is to provide some choices on the market system for policy maker in current and future China. The market economic system has multiple models such as liberal economic system in America, social market system in Europe ,European body corporate system, even including capitalistic oligopoly market system in 19 century or anarchism criminal syndicate system in Russia in the nineties…….However, among these alternative market systems, if we only analyze the market system itself without studying the governments structured by democratic and autocratic institutions in political opinions, then what is the optimal model China will choose? and what probable way will we select especially with regard to history, culture and social structure in china?
This study of which model China will choose on market economic system in the future will be going on in comparison with all kinds of market economic systems available. The market economic system in America will be taken as the object of this comparative research project because sufficient materials may be gathered in this field if I get the opportunity in your center. This research project also is a branch of my overall research plan (including studying the economic systems in Europe, America and Russia).
Three dimensions will be used to review the economic system in this study.
(a) Political dimension. This is to observe the degree of government intervention by the expenditure、management、the way of possessing productive resources , including the transfer of payment model and institution guarantee in social protection, the regulation in macro-economy and tax policies.
(b) Economic dimension. This is to observe the degree of open and competitive market’s impacts on economy.
(c) Social dimension. This is to observe the degree of social solidarity. This easily ignored dimension is the most important factor, which affect the establishment of a healthy market economic system. It includes the identity of the rule of economic act management, the trust of different groups of people, and how probably unfair economic issues could be solved through negotiations.
Under these three dimensions, I concentrate my research contents on following points:
(a) To study the experience and lessons of America market economy, mainly focusing on the historical background, economic and social causes of the Great Depression of US in 1930s, then compare it with our current economic and social conditions.
(b) To study the relationship between Federal government and local governments in US, then compare it with the relationship between central and local governments of China, mainly focusing on the mechanism of power distribution and historical evolution of Federal and State of US, put emphasis on the balance of economic and social development of US, and compare it with China’s problems.
(c) To study the institution reform of public management, then focus on the intrinsic cause and related institutions on the regulation and deregulation experience of US, explore its relationship with social equity and citizens’ social rights, then to examine our national assets reform, the looseness of market entry, and the corresponding welfare reform in China.
I hope to draw the conclusion through my comparisons:
In present construction of China’s market system, do our economic structure and social allocation have the same conditions with the Great Depression of US in 1930s? Would it bring the terrible economic depression in the following two or three years? How to avoid this depression? Then the significance of power allocation and public management to just development and competition is to be clarified. The Market economic model in U.S history gives us a good example to follow.
? Schedule and Approach
After I determine my research contents, I’d like to arrange my schedule. If possible, I hope to get the opportunity to stay in Hopkins-Nanjing center for two months’ research in this autumn. During my stay, I will take advantage of convenient research resources there to prepare my basic study. Also I will benefit from the intellectual stimulation of other Scholars and Fellows in residence, as well as the faculty and students at the Center and many visitors, including scholars, government officials, and business leaders who visit the Center during the academic year on figuring out the framework of my study. Then If possible, I would like to pay a one-month visit to U.S by the support of Hopkins-Nanjing center to get more direct and empirical knowledge, references and communications, so as to achieve my research goal better.
